Bitcoin’s 24% Breakout Week: What’s Driving the Surge — and What Else Moved
Your data-driven market summary (USA). Data with no hidden agenda.
Here’s where the key indicators sit versus their own history, plus the best and worst movers across companies and industries — and the risk and growth factors that may sit behind them. We don’t tell you what to do. We just show you what the data says, then close each section with a quick Read: the possible drivers, and what they could mean.
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01 · COMPANIES
Movers Above $10B Market Cap
▲ LEADERS
1 WEEK
● Merck & Company Inc — +12.60%
● Progressive Corp — +8.09%
● Targa Resources Inc — +7.72%
YEAR TO DATE
● Corcept Therapeutics Incorporated — +219.63%
● STMicroelectronics NV ADR — +84.95%
● Applied Materials Inc — +83.92%
YEAR ON YEAR
● Hecla Mining Company — +170.56%
● Vertiv Holdings Co — +106.31%
● Merck & Company Inc — +83.28%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include positive EBITDA margin, positive profit margin, and revenue growth over last year.
▼ LAGGARDS
1 WEEK
● Nebius Group N.V. — -19.37%
● Semtech Corporation — -19.02%
● Applied Opt — -18.69%
YEAR TO DATE
● Applovin Corp — -50.08%
● Insulet Corporation — -47.24%
● Boston Scientific Corp — -46.32%
YEAR ON YEAR
● Roblox Corp — -66.35%
● Insulet Corporation — -55.17%
● Boston Scientific Corp — -52.03%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition & substitutes, supply chain disruptions, and adverse capital markets access.
👀 THE READ
Possible drivers: Merck leads the week (+12.60%) and also lands on the YoY leaderboard (+83.28%) — a rare double appearance across windows. Progressive and Targa Resources round out the week’s gainers, while Corcept Therapeutics’ YTD standout (+219.63%) towers over the rest of the list. Laggards cluster around chip and tech-adjacent names on the week (Nebius, Semtech, Applied Opt), while medical devices continue their extended slide (Insulet and Boston Scientific both repeat across YTD and YoY).
What it could mean: Merck showing up in both the weekly and YoY windows suggests durable strength rather than a single-week pop — worth watching if it holds. Insulet and Boston Scientific’s now-repeated presence on both YTD and YoY laggard lists, alongside Roblox’s steep YoY decline, keeps pointing to healthcare devices and select consumer tech as this cycle’s weak spots.
02 · COMPANIES
Movers Below $10B Market Cap
▲ LEADERS
1 WEEK
● Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc — +78.46%
● Weave Communications Inc — +33.88%
● Nuvectis Pharma Inc — +23.05%
YEAR TO DATE
● Twist Bioscience Corp — +350.82%
● Anterix Inc — +317.44%
● Amylyx Pharmaceuticals Inc — +242.94%
YEAR ON YEAR
● Butterfly Network Inc — +587.93%
● PACS Group, Inc. — +278.71%
● Entravision Communications — +260.83%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include a diversified business, net margin expansion from last year, and positive EBITDA margin.
▼ LAGGARDS
1 WEEK
● Klarna Group plc — -29.15%
● WhiteFiber, Inc. Ordinary Shares — -27.57%
● MaxLinear Inc — -21.70%
YEAR TO DATE
● Verra Mobility Corp — -80.17%
● Regencell Bioscience Holdings Ltd — -73.95%
● Anbio Biotechnology Class A Ordinary Shares — -73.71%
YEAR ON YEAR
● Anbio Biotechnology Class A Ordinary Shares — -85.31%
● Newegg Commerce Inc — -82.87%
● ODDITY Tech Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares — -81.91%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition & substitutes, reputation or brand decline, and macroeconomic decline or recession.
👀 THE READ
Possible drivers: Amylyx Pharmaceuticals shows up as both a 1-week leader (+78.46%) and a YTD leader (+242.94%) — consistent strength rather than a single spike. Entravision Communications reappears too, this time as a YoY leader (+260.83%) after last week’s sharp 1-week reversal, suggesting the longer-term trend is still intact even after that short-term dip. Verra Mobility remains a persistent YTD laggard for a third straight week, and Klarna’s steep 1-week drop (-29.15%) stands out as the week’s single biggest small-cap loss.
What it could mean: Amylyx’s consistency across both the weekly and YTD windows is a stronger signal than Entravision’s whipsaw last week — worth distinguishing between the two when reading the leaderboard. Verra Mobility’s continued presence as a laggard, now three weeks running, looks increasingly structural.
03 · INDUSTRIES
Industry Performance
Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.
▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING
1 WEEK
● Digital & Cryptocurrency — +6.90%
● Fabrication — +6.37%
● Government Contractor — +5.64%
YEAR TO DATE
● Operator — +133.19%
● Data Management — +66.04%
● Glass — +65.51%
YEAR ON YEAR
● Operator — +151.83%
● Space Logistics — +147.04%
● Glass — +125.05%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include macroeconomic stability & growth, product/service characteristics, and capital markets access.
▼ LOWEST PERFORMING
1 WEEK
● Jewelry & Ornaments — -9.71%
● Manufacturing — -9.40%
● Glass — -8.04%
YEAR TO DATE
● Government Contractor — -37.25%
● Children — -37.04%
● Recycling — -31.53%
YEAR ON YEAR
● Children — -48.95%
● Digital & Cryptocurrency — -42.89%
● Government Contractor — -36.36%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include adverse capital markets access, macroeconomic decline or recession, and changing customer demand.
👀 THE READ
Possible drivers: Government Contractor and Glass both flipped this week — Government Contractor jumped to a 1-week leader (+5.64%) despite remaining the worst YTD and YoY performer, and Glass dropped to a 1-week laggard (-8.04%) despite leading both the YTD and YoY tables. Digital & Cryptocurrency shows a similar split: a 1-week leader (+6.90%) but still the second-worst YoY performer. Operator, meanwhile, keeps its position at the top of both YTD and YoY without interruption.
What it could mean: These short-term reversals in otherwise consistent laggards (Government Contractor) and leaders (Glass) are a reminder that a single strong or weak week doesn’t undo a multi-month trend — Operator’s steady leadership across every window is the more durable signal here.
04 · INDICATORS
Where the Big Levels Sit
Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.
| Indicator | 1W % | Last | Level |
| US 10Y Treasury | +0.83 | 4.74 | High |
| S&P 500 | -1.43 | 7,674.37 | Very High |
| Hang Seng | +3.55 | 26,009.46 | High |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | +6.04 | 93.87 | High |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | -0.83 | 98.84 | Low |
| Gold | +6.42 | 4,661.60 | Very High |
| Bitcoin | +24.39 | 78,000.11 | High |
👀 THE READ
Possible drivers: Bitcoin is this week’s standout — up 24.39% in a single week and now at a High historical level (0.88 standard deviations above trend), a sharp jump from its usual Average reading. Gold also extended further into Very High territory (2.43 SD, +6.42% on the week), and Brent crude moved from Average to a High historical level after a 6.04% weekly gain. The dollar, meanwhile, slipped to a Low reading for the first time in recent weeks, and the S&P 500 pulled back slightly (-1.43%) while remaining Very High overall.
What it could mean: Bitcoin’s move is large enough to be the headline story this week — a 24% weekly swing is well outside its usual range and worth watching for follow-through or a reversal. Gold, crude, and Bitcoin all climbing together while the dollar weakens is consistent with broad-based inflation-hedging and risk appetite running side by side.
05 · WEEKLY MOVERS
Biggest Indicator Swings
▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK
● ETH/USD · Average — +33.75%
● BTC/USD · High — +24.39%
● Platinum · Very High — +8.08%
● Switzerland 10Y · Average — +7.72%
● Turkey 10Y · High — +7.65%
▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK
● Gasoline · High — -5.08%
● Coffee · High — -3.90%
● Feeder Cattle · High — -3.42%
● Live Cattle · High — -2.56%
● Baltic Dry · High — -2.51%
👀 THE READ
Possible drivers: Crypto dominated the week’s gains — ETH/USD (+33.75%) and BTC/USD (+24.39%) were both far ahead of every other mover, with Platinum, Switzerland 10Y, and Turkey 10Y rounding out the top five. On the downside, Gasoline, Coffee, and cattle prices (Feeder Cattle, Live Cattle) all pulled back, alongside a continued dip in the Baltic Dry index.
What it could mean: A simultaneous double-digit move in both ETH and BTC points to broad crypto-market strength rather than a single-coin story — worth watching whether this is the start of a longer run or a sharp, short-lived rally. The declines elsewhere were comparatively modest this week, which makes the crypto move stand out even more.
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