The Cooldown Week: Crypto and Gold Ease Off as Wheat, Cocoa, and Oat Surge

Here’s where the key indicators sit versus their own history, plus the best and worst movers across companies and industries — and the risk and growth factors that may sit behind them. We don’t tell you what to do. We just show you what the data says, then close each section with a quick Read: the possible drivers, and what they could mean.

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01 · COMPANIES

Movers Above $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

● TTM Technologies Inc  —  +10.10%

● Lumentum Holdings Inc  —  +8.34%

● The J. M. Smucker Company  —  +5.29%

YEAR TO DATE

● STMicroelectronics NV ADR  —  +82.12%

● Arrow Electronics Inc  —  +81.05%

● Allegheny Technologies Incorporated  —  +76.42%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Warner Bros Discovery Inc  —  +139.62%

● AngloGold Ashanti plc  —  +113.82%

● Caterpillar Inc  —  +86.40%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include revenue growth over last year, positive EBITDA margin, and a diversified business.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

● MasTec Inc  —  -6.58%

● Ecopetrol SA ADR  —  -5.76%

● Unity Software Inc  —  -5.43%

YEAR TO DATE

● Roblox Corp  —  -52.78%

● Boston Scientific Corp  —  -50.28%

● Rollins Inc  —  -37.81%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Tencent Music Entertainment Group  —  -64.03%

● Boston Scientific Corp  —  -55.50%

● DraftKings Inc  —  -48.16%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition & substitutes, changing customer demand, and reputation or brand decline.

👀 THE READ

Possible drivers: TTM Technologies leads the week (+10.10%) alongside Lumentum — both electronics and optical component makers, pointing to continued hardware demand. STMicroelectronics keeps its position among YTD leaders for a second straight week, this time alongside Arrow Electronics and Allegheny Technologies — a semiconductor and materials theme that’s held for over a month now. Laggards this week skew mixed — energy (Ecopetrol), software (Unity) — while Boston Scientific and Roblox continue their extended slides across YTD and YoY.

What it could mean: STMicroelectronics’ repeated presence on the YTD leaderboard over multiple weeks is one of the more durable trends we’ve tracked this quarter. Boston Scientific and Roblox showing up as laggards again — now a multi-week pattern for both — continues to point to healthcare devices and consumer tech as this cycle’s persistent weak spots.

02 · COMPANIES

Movers Below $10B Market Cap

▲ LEADERS

1 WEEK

● Polestar Automotive Holding UK PLC Class C-1 ADS (ADW)  —  +94.22%

● Kanzhun Ltd ADR  —  +18.12%

● Emergent Biosolutions Inc  —  +17.52%

YEAR TO DATE

● Roma Green Finance Limited Ordinary Shares  —  +464.37%

● Pulse Biosciences Inc  —  +258.01%

● Entravision Communications  —  +170.17%

YEAR ON YEAR

● NGL Energy Partners LP  —  +233.81%

● Day One Biopharmaceuticals Inc  —  +186.16%

● PBF Energy Inc  —  +171.02%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include return on invested capital expansion, net margin expansion from last year, and operating margin expansion from last year.

▼ LAGGARDS

1 WEEK

● SCHMID Group N.V. Class A Ordinary Shares  —  -35.16%

● Scribe Therapeutics Inc. Common Stock  —  -20.33%

● 360 Finance Inc  —  -19.33%

YEAR TO DATE

● Verra Mobility Corp  —  -81.15%

● Newegg Commerce Inc  —  -77.01%

● Regencell Bioscience Holdings Ltd  —  -74.20%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Verra Mobility Corp  —  -83.40%

● Maquia Capital Acquisition Corp  —  -81.06%

● ODDITY Tech Ltd. Class A Ordinary Shares  —  -80.15%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition & substitutes, changing customer demand, and adverse capital markets access.

👀 THE READ

Possible drivers: Polestar Automotive’s 94.22% weekly jump is this week’s single biggest small-cap mover, alongside Kanzhun and Emergent Biosolutions. Entravision Communications reappears on the YTD leaderboard (+170.17%) for the third time in as many weeks — a genuinely volatile stock this cycle. On the downside, Verra Mobility now sits at the top of both the YTD (-81.15%) and YoY (-83.40%) laggard lists — the worst possible combination, and its fourth straight week on this list.

What it could mean: Entravision’s repeated appearances — leader, laggard, leader again — make it one to watch rather than trust on any single week’s number. Verra Mobility’s consistent presence at the bottom of both windows, now four weeks running, looks like the most structural story in this dataset.

03 · INDUSTRIES

Industry Performance

Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.

▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

● Delivery & Mail  —  +3.47%

● Tobacco  —  +3.19%

● Intermediaries  —  +2.59%

YEAR TO DATE

● Operator  —  +127.30%

● Data Management  —  +67.08%

● Glass  —  +65.83%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Operator  —  +137.89%

● Glass  —  +116.59%

● Fabrication  —  +104.94%

Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include macroeconomic stability & growth, product/service characteristics, and capital markets access.

▼ LOWEST PERFORMING

1 WEEK

● Exercise & Fitness  —  -15.34%

● Space Logistics  —  -8.81%

● eCommerce  —  -5.76%

YEAR TO DATE

● Government Contractor  —  -36.63%

● Children  —  -35.87%

● Recycling  —  -34.04%

YEAR ON YEAR

● Children  —  -46.70%

● Government Contractor  —  -37.42%

● Digital & Cryptocurrency  —  -36.49%

Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include competition & substitutes, reputation or brand decline, and macroeconomic decline or recession.

👀 THE READ

Possible drivers: Operator and Glass continue their run at the top of both the YTD and YoY tables — a trend that’s now held for over a month. Government Contractor and Children remain fixtures at the bottom of the same two windows. On the week, Exercise & Fitness posted the sharpest single-industry drop we’ve seen in a while (-15.34%), while Delivery & Mail and Tobacco led the modest weekly gains.

What it could mean: With Operator and Glass leading, and Government Contractor and Children lagging, across both YTD and YoY for multiple weeks running, these look like the more durable industry stories this quarter — worth watching for how long the pattern holds. Exercise & Fitness’s sharp weekly drop is worth a closer look, since nothing else in this week’s data points to an obvious sector-wide cause.

04 · INDICATORS

Where the Big Levels Sit

Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.

Indicator	1W %	Last	Level
US 10Y Treasury	-0.40	4.72	High
S&P 500	+0.49	7,711.76	Very High
Hang Seng	-1.63	25,584.79	High
Crude Oil (Brent)	-6.46	88.29	Average
US Dollar Index (DXY)	+0.89	99.68	Average
Gold	-2.60	4,504.10	Very High
Bitcoin	-0.64	77,788.46	High

👀 THE READ

Possible drivers: After last week’s sharp moves, several indicators cooled off — Gold pulled back 2.60% (though it remains Very High at 2.23 standard deviations above trend), and Bitcoin eased slightly (-0.64%) after its 24% surge the week before, still sitting at a High historical level. Brent crude dropped 6.46% on the week, reversing part of its recent gain, while the Hang Seng also pulled back 1.63%.

What it could mean: This week reads like a cooldown after last week’s sharp crypto and gold moves — neither reversed course, but both eased off their fastest pace. Crude’s pullback is worth watching alongside this week’s steep drop in Gasoline and Heating Oil below, which points to broader softness across the energy complex rather than a single indicator.

05 · WEEKLY MOVERS

Biggest Indicator Swings

▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK

● Oat · Average  —  +15.19%

● Wheat · Low  —  +12.12%

● Cocoa · High  —  +9.98%

● Baltic Dry · High  —  +9.36%

● Palladium · Average  —  +7.23%

▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK

● Coffee · High  —  -12.86%

● Gasoline · High  —  -8.96%

● Crude Oil (Brent) · Average  —  -6.46%

● Heating Oil · Very High  —  -5.62%

● Live Cattle · High  —  -5.03%

👀 THE READ

Possible drivers: Agricultural commodities dominated the week’s gains — Oat, Wheat, and Cocoa all posted double-digit or near-double-digit moves, alongside a continued climb in the Baltic Dry index. On the downside, Coffee had its steepest drop in recent weeks (-12.86%), and the energy complex broadly softened — Gasoline, Crude Oil (Brent), and Heating Oil all fell together.

What it could mean: A broad agricultural rally alongside a broad energy pullback is an unusual combination worth watching — it doesn’t fit a single clean narrative like risk-on or risk-off. Coffee’s sharp reversal after recent strength is worth flagging on its own, since it’s one of the largest single-week moves in this dataset.

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Market Trend Monday is provided for information only and reflects what the data shows. It is not investment advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are drawn from Capnote’s data and methodology and may differ from other sources. Always do your own research.