Oil’s Back: Crude Surges 9% and Ends a Month-Long Industry Streak
Here’s where the key indicators sit versus their own history, plus the best and worst movers across companies and industries — and the risk and growth factors that may sit behind them. We don’t tell you what to do. We just show you what the data says, then close each section with a quick Read: the possible drivers, and what they could mean.
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01 · COMPANIES
Movers Above $10B Market Cap
▲ LEADERS
1 WEEK
● Exelixis Inc — +8.22%
● Galaxy Digital Holdings Ltd — +7.72%
● Deere & Company — +6.21%
YEAR TO DATE
● APA Corporation — +72.58%
● Petróleo Brasileiro S.A. – Petrobras — +69.22%
● Datadog Inc — +60.16%
YEAR ON YEAR
● DigitalOcean Holdings Inc — +250.33%
● Ecopetrol SA ADR — +99.56%
● Targa Resources Inc — +77.62%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include revenue growth over last year, positive EBITDA margin, and positive profit margin.
▼ LAGGARDS
1 WEEK
● SharkNinja, Inc. — -8.95%
● SailPoint, Inc. Common Stock — -7.67%
● Crowdstrike Holdings Inc — -6.86%
YEAR TO DATE
● CoStar Group Inc — -53.89%
● Applovin Corp — -48.75%
● Insulet Corporation — -48.41%
YEAR ON YEAR
● CoStar Group Inc — -65.99%
● Insulet Corporation — -57.51%
● Zoetis Inc — -50.53%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include competition & substitutes, reputation or brand decline, and leverage increase.
👀 THE READ
Possible drivers: Exelixis leads the week (+8.22%) alongside Galaxy Digital Holdings and Deere & Company. Energy names dominate the YTD leaderboard — APA Corporation, Petrobras, and Datadog — while DigitalOcean’s YoY standout (+250.33%) towers over energy names Ecopetrol and Targa Resources. Laggards this week skew consumer and cybersecurity (SharkNinja, SailPoint, Crowdstrike), while CoStar Group and Insulet Corporation continue their now-familiar slide across both YTD and YoY.
What it could mean: Energy names showing up repeatedly across the YTD leaderboard (APA, Petrobras) lines up with this week’s sharp crude oil rally — worth watching whether that connection holds. CoStar and Insulet’s repeated laggard status, now spanning several weeks, continues to point to real-estate data and medical devices as persistent weak spots this cycle.
02 · COMPANIES
Movers Below $10B Market Cap
▲ LEADERS
1 WEEK
● Titan Machinery Inc — +30.96%
● Limbach Holdings Inc — +17.51%
● Braskem SA Class A — +15.94%
YEAR TO DATE
● Aehr Test Systems — +293.64%
● 10X Genomics Inc — +281.90%
● MaxLinear Inc — +237.03%
YEAR ON YEAR
● MaxLinear Inc — +300.73%
● Roma Green Finance Limited Ordinary Shares — +244.39%
● Maravai Lifesciences Holdings Inc — +215.06%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD names include leverage decrease, low leverage, and positive EBITDA margin.
▼ LAGGARDS
1 WEEK
● Rezolve AI Limited Ordinary Shares — -21.55%
● Rapid7 Inc — -16.70%
● Funko Inc — -15.63%
YEAR TO DATE
● Verra Mobility Corp — -82.08%
● Newegg Commerce Inc — -79.22%
● Anbio Biotechnology Class A Ordinary Shares — -76.76%
YEAR ON YEAR
● Anbio Biotechnology Class A Ordinary Shares — -87.02%
● Verra Mobility Corp — -83.67%
● Maquia Capital Acquisition Corp — -81.06%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggards include changing customer demand, competition & substitutes, and reputation or brand decline.
👀 THE READ
Possible drivers: Titan Machinery leads the week (+30.96%), while MaxLinear shows up as both a YTD leader (+237.03%) and the top YoY performer (+300.73%) — a rare double appearance suggesting durable strength rather than a single spike. Verra Mobility remains at the bottom of both the YTD (-82.08%) and YoY (-83.67%) laggard lists for a fifth straight week, alongside Anbio Biotechnology’s steep declines in both windows.
What it could mean: MaxLinear’s consistency across YTD and YoY makes it one of the more reliable growth stories in this dataset right now. Verra Mobility’s fifth consecutive week as a top laggard across both windows is no longer a blip — it’s the most persistent decline we’ve tracked this quarter.
03 · INDUSTRIES
Industry Performance
Weighted-average market cap of listed companies using Capnote’s proprietary groupings.
▲ HIGHEST PERFORMING
1 WEEK
● Refining & Smelting — +34.94%
● Education — +11.50%
● Agriculture — +5.40%
YEAR TO DATE
● Data Management — +68.51%
● Refining & Smelting — +58.69%
● Accounting — +56.55%
YEAR ON YEAR
● Refining & Smelting — +109.85%
● Space Logistics — +92.17%
● Data Management — +87.13%
Capnote tip: common growth factors among top YTD industries include macroeconomic stability & growth, product/service characteristics, and capital markets access.
▼ LOWEST PERFORMING
1 WEEK
● Children — -8.86%
● Gaming — -7.03%
● Commodities — -5.68%
YEAR TO DATE
● Energy Storage — -30.52%
● Digital & Cryptocurrency — -23.80%
● Intermediaries — -22.15%
YEAR ON YEAR
● Recycling — -56.31%
● Children — -44.12%
● Government Contractor — -40.94%
Capnote tip: common risk factors among these YTD laggard industries include macroeconomic decline or recession, adverse capital markets access, and reputation or brand decline.
👀 THE READ
Possible drivers: Refining & Smelting is this week’s standout, topping all three windows — 1-week (+34.94%), YTD (+58.69%), and YoY (+109.85%) — a sharp change from Operator and Glass, which had led the YTD/YoY tables for over a month and are now absent from the top three. This lines up closely with the sharp jump in crude oil prices this week (Brent +8.77%, WTI +9.40%). On the downside, Children continues its extended slide, now appearing as a laggard in both the 1-week and YoY windows.
What it could mean: Refining & Smelting’s sudden dominance across every window, right alongside this week’s crude oil surge, looks like a direct read-through from energy prices to the industries that process them — worth watching whether it holds if oil prices ease. Operator and Glass’s disappearance from the leaderboard after weeks at the top is worth flagging as a possible turning point rather than routine noise.
04 · INDICATORS
Where the Big Levels Sit
Positions vs. a 5-year moving average. Level reflects standard deviations from the mean.
| Indicator | 1W % | Last | Level |
| US 10Y Treasury | +1.53 | 4.79 | High |
| S&P 500 | +0.09 | 7,718.60 | Very High |
| Hang Seng | +0.26 | 25,650.87 | High |
| Crude Oil (Brent) | +8.77 | 95.83 | High |
| US Dollar Index (DXY) | -0.55 | 99.16 | Low |
| Gold | -0.02 | 4,477.20 | Very High |
| Bitcoin | +2.37 | 79,705.47 | High |
👀 THE READ
Possible drivers: Crude Oil (Brent) jumped 8.77% this week and moved back to a High historical level (0.85 standard deviations above trend), reversing last week’s pullback. The US 10Y Treasury also climbed (+1.53%), while Gold stayed essentially flat (-0.02%) after two weeks of larger swings. Bitcoin continued its steady climb (+2.37%), remaining at a High level.
What it could mean: Crude’s sharp reversal this week, paired with the Refining & Smelting industry surge above, suggests energy is back in focus after a quieter previous week. Gold’s flat week after recent volatility could mean it’s consolidating at its current Very High level rather than reversing outright — worth watching for direction next week.
05 · WEEKLY MOVERS
Biggest Indicator Swings
▲ GAINS SINCE LAST WEEK
● Orange Juice · Low — +16.62%
● Coal · Average — +13.19%
● Baltic Dry · High — +9.48%
● Crude Oil (WTI) · High — +9.40%
● Crude Oil (Brent) · High — +8.77%
▼ LOSSES SINCE LAST WEEK
● Coffee · High — -15.31%
● Gasoline · High — -8.31%
● Cocoa · High — -7.11%
● Wheat · Low — -6.38%
● Cotton · Average — -5.42%
👀 THE READ
Possible drivers: Both crude oil benchmarks — WTI (+9.40%) and Brent (+8.77%) — posted strong gains together, alongside Orange Juice and Coal. Coffee extended its decline for a second straight week (-15.31%, following last week’s -12.86%), and the rest of the agricultural complex broadly softened too — Cocoa, Wheat, and Cotton all fell.
What it could mean: The simultaneous jump in both crude oil benchmarks confirms energy strength isn’t isolated to one contract, and lines up directly with this week’s Refining & Smelting industry surge. Coffee’s second consecutive steep weekly decline is now a two-week trend rather than a one-off move, and worth watching for whether it continues.
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Market Trend Monday is provided for information only and reflects what the data shows. It is not investment advice, nor a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Figures are drawn from Capnote’s data and methodology and may differ from other sources. Always do your own research.